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NEW YORK: US inflation data this week may give the Federal Reserve (Fed) mixed signals ahead of a potential third-straight jumbo interest-rate hike, with a broad measure of consumer prices likely to simmer down even as a gauge of underlying pressures accelerates.
The government’s report is expected to show an 8% increase in the overall consumer price index (CPI) from the same month last year, down from 8.5% in July yet still historically elevated.
Stripping out energy and food, the CPI is forecast to climb 6.1%, up from 5.9% in the year through July.
Tomorrow’s figures, in conjunction with recent data showing healthy job growth, an elevated number of unfilled positions, and resilient household spending, will help shape Fed officials’ views on whether to press ahead with another 75 basis-point rate increase.
In recent speeches US central bankers stressed that high inflation will indeed require higher borrowing costs that slow demand, though they kept the door open on the size of a hike at the conclusion of their Sept 20-21 meeting.
Policymakers are now in a blackout period.
“We are in this for as long as it takes to get inflation down,” Fed vice-chair Lael Brainard said at a conference last Wednesday.
“Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to provide confidence that inflation is moving down to target.”
In addition to the CPI, the US economic data calendar is heavy.,
Reports include producer prices, industrial production, regional manufacturing surveys and consumer sentiment.
Figures on retail sales will hint at the pace of household demand for merchandise against a backdrop of elevated inflation, higher interest rates and a shift to spending on services and experiences.
Economists project a solid gain in retail purchases excluding petrol and motor vehicles.
“August inflation gauges will likely be very soft, but that won’t change the bottom line: The ‘totality’ of the data that Fed chair Jerome Powell will follow shows few signs of cooling in the economy, and perhaps even some acceleration.” according to Bloomberg economists Anna Wong, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger.
Elsewhere, data showing faster UK wages and inflation are due just as the country continues mourning its queen, and Russia’s central bank may cut rates.
With the UK continuing a national period of mourning for the loss of Queen Elizabeth II, the Bank of England postponed for a week its policy meeting and likely aggressive rate hike that was scheduled for Thursday.
The delay will give officials more time to weigh data that will further illustrate the fallout from the country’s cost-of-living crisis.
That includes wage data tomorrow, predicted to show a pickup, and inflation on Wednesday, which may stray further above 10%.
European Central Bank policymakers, who just delivered unprecedented monetary tightening with a three-quarter-point rate hike, will make several speeches.